The Adventures of TMLSB
I'm a little bit country and a little bit rock n' roll
Friday, November 12, 2004
Blurble...
It's now just one day until I hop in the car and head back in time to the loveliest village on the Plains...Auburn, Alabama.

I haven't been back since 1994 and when I was talking to my wife about the trip this morning, it seems like a lifetime ago. Hell, it's been half my life since I was in school there and over two thirds of my adult life, assuming that people that know me think my adult life has actually started yet.

Anyway, enough nostalgia from me, at least for now.

The wife and I were watching SportsCenter this morning, and Lee Corso, Mark May and Trev Alberts were ALL picking Auburn to beat Georgia, and the last two were picking them to run the table for the right to play USC for the national championship.

Blurble....

Then, I open the Atlanta paper this morning, and EVERYTHING is pro-UGA. I mean, I knew it would be, but some of it was even based on facts.

Like this beauty: When Auburn and their opponent are both in the top ten, Auburn is 4-6-1 in those games. Auburn has lost the last three games that fit that scenario.

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Auburn's last defeat came at the hands of...UGA.

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Auburn does lead the overall record in the series 51-46-8. However, the road team's record in this series. AT Auburn, UGA is 11-8-2. At Athens, Auburn is 17-8. This trend was serious in the 80's, with the road team winning about two-thirds of the time. The only time this changed recently really was when UGA decided to win in their place in 2003. Thanks Dawgs.

Blurble...

On the upside, Auburn has scored at least 33 points in the last six games. That's a pretty nice run.

Auburn leads the SEC in scoring offense, scoring defense and rushing defense.

Auburn is second in the nation in scoring defense and seventh in pass defense.

Jason Campbell is 3rd in the nation in passing efficiency while David Greene is 10th.

Here are a couple of middle of the road stats:

Auburn's Quentin Groves and Georgia's David Pollack are tied for the SEC sack lead.

Here's the biggest for what it's worth stat as far as I am concerned: both teams are undefeated this year when scoring first. Auburn is 8-0 and UGA is 5-0. I'd say that's the biggest stat right now.

Auburn's offense is potent and efficient. UGA's defense is relentless and contains a couple of the country's biggest hitters, especially Greg Blue and Odell Thurman.

Auburn's defense is fast and relentless and the DB's are experienced and big. UGA's receivers are leaders, with one of them a team captain.

Auburn's two running backs are seniors and very experienced and dangerous, bruising backs. UGA's two backs are smaller freshmen with less experience, but are dangerous as well.

In my mind, the game is going to turn on a few key points, some obvious and some not. Here goes the prediction machine:

- Turnovers (as always) will be critical.

- Special teams play and lack of special teams mistakes will tell the tale regarding field position.

- Both teams MUST establish the run to be successful. If Auburn goes for 150 between their two backs, they're almost impossible to beat. Conversely, Georgia MUST be able to run the ball to set up play action and keep the pressure off of David Greene.

- Mark Richt has proven to be a better on the fly adjustment coach that Tommy Tuberville. Tubs is famous for taking chances, often unnecessary ones. That history is of concern to me. While it's okay to try crazy shit when your team is under-rated or a serious underdog, it's important not to give games away when you're the favorite. Playing more "by the book" and a bit "closer to the vest" becomes the call for the day.

Considering all of these factors, I truly believe that this is Auburn's year. They may not go undefeated and they may not get into the BCS title game, but they have enough talent, poise and experience to win this game.

Auburn wins 31-21.

And now that I have typed that prediction, I may just throw up in my mouth.

War...Blurble...Eagle!!

Added at 1:28pm on 11/12/04

Ack!!

David Greene is the winningest QB in NCAA division I history!! AND he's 15-1 on the road!!

15-1 on the road???

UGA wins 24-21

Blurble.